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Introduction
When it comes to DFS, everyone has their own approach. Some players focus on consistent min-cashes, carefully managing their bankrolls with a safe, balanced strategy. That’s not me. I play to win. If I’m not in contention for the top prize, I’m not interested. My strategy leans aggressive, prioritizing high-leverage plays—especially in the MVP and captain spots—because that’s where the biggest edge can be found.
If your style is more conservative, my approach might not align with yours. But if you’re a GPP player who embraces volatility, taking calculated risks for a shot at first place, then you’re in the right place.
Why Trust My Strategy?
I know what you might be thinking: “Who is this guy, and why should I listen to him?” Fair question. I’m not a DFS pro. I don’t max-enter contests with hundreds of lineups. I’m a working guy with a full-time job, a wife, and a dog. But when it comes to single-game showdown slates, I’ve had success. I’ve taken down the big tournaments, including a $142K Super Bowl win and another five-figure takedown. My strategy isn’t about playing it safe—it’s about finding leverage where others don’t.
Heres proof im not BSing you:
What to Expect in This Breakdown
For this year’s Super Bowl slate, I’ll be analyzing key plays, potential leverage spots, and how we can differentiate from the field. My projections and ownership data are pulled from RotoGrinder—the same source I used when I had my big win. I’ll go through the best strategies for building a lineup that has a real shot at first place.
This year is more difficult to breakdown than most years at least from my standpoint in particular it is because the eagles are an incredibly hard team to project out offensively. You have Saquon who has absolutely obliterated the NFL all year and is on an absolute heater in the playoffs. But you also have Jalen hurts AJ Brown Devonta Smith and a sneaky Dallas Goedert which at any given point all 4 of these guys could explode through projections and break the slate. On the other hand the Chiefs (on paper) are pretty straight forward. You have Patty Mahomes in yet another big game which at this point is becoming routine for him Kareem hunt who seems to have taken control of that backfield even with Pacheco back and then its basically take your pick with Cheifs pass catchers this season.
Fanduel
Note: Ownership percentages can be higher or lower than listed and they typcually are. These are based off of RotoGrinders projections at the time of writing this article.
MVP Picks
1. Xavier Worthy (Chiefs) - $11,500 - 4.4% Projected MVP Ownership
My top MVP pick for FanDuel is Chiefs rookie Xavier Worthy. He’s a dynamic speedster who can make plays in multiple ways—including taking handoffs out of the backfield. His explosiveness gives him the ability to rack up points quickly, and I believe Kansas City needs to get him involved if they want to win this game.
What makes Worthy even more appealing is his low projected MVP ownership, making him an excellent leverage play for a potential tournament takedown. According to RotoGrinders, he has the second-highest optimal vs. projected ownership percentage on the entire slate—meaning he’s being underutilized relative to his upside.
For that reason, Worthy is the guy I’m building the majority of my lineups around.
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 13.27 pts
- Floor: 7.50 pts
- Ceiling: 21.43 pts
2. Kareem Hunt (Chiefs) - $10,500 - 3.4% Projected MVP Ownership
Kareem is a super low-owned MVP option with significant upside, making him an intriguing leverage play. If this game turns into a low-scoring, grind-it-out battle (14-13 type game)—which is a realistic possibility—his workload and potential for key goal-line touches could make him the optimal MVP choice.
Even in a more typical game script, Hunt remains a high-upside play, as he has shown the ability to find the end zone multiple times in a single game. His red-zone involvement and versatility as a runner and receiver make him a strong contrarian pick who could outperform expectations, especially if Kansas City leans on the ground game to control the tempo.
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 8.66 pts
- Floor: 3.77 pts
- Ceiling: 16.76 pts
3. Devonta Smith (Eagles) - $11,000 - 3.2% Projected MVP Ownership
It’s super easy to overlook DeVonta Smith, but he has a real path to being the optimal MVP in this game. I expect the Chiefs' defensive game plan to focus on forcing Jalen Hurts to throw while keying in on Saquon Barkley, limiting his effectiveness on the ground.
With A.J. Brown likely drawing Trent McDuffie, Smith could see an increased target share, making him a prime breakout candidate. His ability to create separation and stretch the field gives him multiple ways to rack up yardage and touchdowns, particularly if the Eagles are playing from behind. If this game turns into a pass-heavy script, Smith could end up being the highest-scoring player on the slate, making him a fantastic contrarian MVP option.
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 10.49 pts
- Floor: 5.10 pts
- Ceiling: 18.34 pts
4. Dallas Goedert (Eagles) - $10,000 - 2.5% Projected MVP Ownership
Dallas Goedert is another under-the-radar MVP option with a strong path to being the top scorer in this game. Similar to DeVonta Smith, he benefits from a likely pass-heavy game script, as the Chiefs will look to contain Saquon Barkley and force Jalen Hurts to throw.
With A.J. Brown dealing with Trent McDuffie, Goedert could emerge as Hurts' go-to safety blanket, especially in high-pressure situations and key third downs. His size and red-zone presence make him a strong candidate for multiple touchdowns, and if the Eagles are playing from behind, he could see heavy volume underneath. If Hurts leans on him as a security option all game, Goedert has a real chance to be the optimal MVP at low ownership.
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 9.36 pts
- Floor: 4.69 pts
- Ceiling: 16.07 pts
5. Travis Kelce (Chiefs) - $12,000 - 5.8% Projected MVP Ownership
Travis Kelce may seem like a surprising MVP pick for a guy who is all about leverage, but he’s likely to be less owned than expected. Coming off a disappointing 2-catch, 19-yard performance against the Bills, many may pivot away from him, creating a great opportunity for leverage.
Despite the down game, Kelce remains Mahomes’ most trusted target, especially in high-stakes matchups like this. His elite route-running, red-zone dominance, and playoff experience make him a strong candidate for a bounce-back performance. You can never go wrong with the Mahomes-Kelce connection, and if this game stays competitive, Kelce has the potential to be the highest-scoring player on the slate at a lower ownership than usual.
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 13.46 pts
- Floor: 7.42 pts
- Ceiling: 23.02 pts
Flex Options
There are plenty of strong flex options, and you really can’t go wrong with most of them. The key strategy is ensuring both quarterbacks are in the lineup, as they are the most reliable flex choices. While this won’t provide leverage, that’s not a concern since we’ve already gained significant leverage at the MVP spot.
From there, I’ll round out my FanDuel lineups by mixing in some of the MVP picks mentioned above, along with a few lower-owned "punt" plays to maximize differentiation and upside.
Punt plays that I have my eye on include:
DeAndre Hopkins - 6.4% projected flex ownership
Noah Gray - 6.8% projected flex ownership
JuJu Smith-Schuster - 8.4% projected flex ownership
Fading Saquon Barkley – High-Risk, High-Reward Play
One glaring omission you’ll notice is Saquon Barkley. It’s not that I don’t believe in his upside—if I were max enteringthis slate, I’d definitely have plenty of Saquon exposure at both MVP and Flex. However, this is a leverage-driven approach, and I expect Barkley to be the highest-owned player across all contest types.
By fading him, I’m taking a swing-for-the-fences approach that could either pay off big or completely backfire. The reasoning behind this strategy is twofold:
- Game Script Consideration – I believe the Chiefs' game plan will be to put the ball in Jalen Hurts’ hands, whether that means forcing him to throw more or limiting Barkley’s rushing production.
- Chiefs’ Run Defense – Kansas City allowed the 8th fewest rushing yards all season, making this a tough matchup for Barkley on paper.
If the Chiefs jump out to an early lead, the Eagles may be forced to abandon the run and lean heavily on Hurts and the passing attack. That’s the scenario I’m banking on, and it’s a calculated risk I’m willing to take.
Draftkings
Note: Ownership percentages can be higher or lower than listed and they typcually are. These are based off of RotoGrinders projections at the time of writing this article.
1. Jalen Hurts- $15,600 - 13% Projected MVP Ownership
I like Jalen Hurts on DraftKings for several reasons. While 13% ownership might seem high when crafting a unique lineup, it’s actually solid leverage for a quarterback with elite upside.
As mentioned earlier, I’m banking on the game script favoring Hurts, meaning increased passing volume and rushing opportunities. Plus, we all know what happens when the Eagles get to the 1-yard line—Hurts becomes the best goal-line back in football, giving him a strong chance for multiple rushing touchdowns to break the slate.
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 20.40 pts
- Floor: 12.77 pts
- Ceiling: 29.93 pts
2. Saquon- $18,000 - 11.7% Projected MVP Ownership
At $18K, Saquon Barkley is priced high enough that his ownership may be lower than it should be. Don’t get me wrong—he’ll still be one of the higher-owned plays on the slate, but if you pair him with a few lower-owned flex options, you can still create enough leverage for a unique lineup.
Additionally, if the game script we’re banking on backfires, this is a chance to get exposure to Saquon without overcommitting. I prefer him on DraftKings over FanDuel this week, as his projected ceiling of 30.19 points is the highest on the entire slate, giving him unmatched raw upside.
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 20.10 pts
- Floor: 11.88 pts
- Ceiling: 30.19 pts
3. Devonta Smith (Eagles) - $11,100 - 5.9% Projected MVP Ownership
DeVonta Smith has a slightly higher ownership projection on DraftKings, but that’s not a dealbreaker. I still really like him for all the reasons mentioned before. This feels like a spot where multiple factors align in his favor, from the Chiefs’ defensive focus on A.J. Brown/Saquon to a game script that could force the Eagles to throw more. Even with increased ownership, his big-play ability and potential volume make him a strong tournament play.
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 12.79 pts
- Floor: 6.22 pts
- Ceiling: 22.36 pts
4. Travis (Chiefs) - $13,500 - 8.8% Projected MVP Ownership
Travis Kelce is another strong play on both platforms, even though his ownership will be significantly higher on DraftKings. While he’s more chalky here, he still grades out well when comparing overall projections to ownership projections. His elite target share, red-zone dominance, and chemistry with Mahomes make him a high-floor, high-ceiling option, even at elevated ownership.
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 16.84 pts
- Floor: 9.28 pts
- Ceiling: 28.80 pts
5. Eagles Defense (Eagles) - $6,300 - 1.7% Projected MVP Ownership
You never really know when a defense will break the slate. Do I expect it to happen? No. But could it? Absolutely.
Facing Andy Reid, Mahomes, and company isn’t exactly an ideal spot for a huge defensive performance, but the leverage here is too strong to ignore. If the Eagles' defense makes a few key plays—sacks, turnovers, or even a defensive touchdown—they could swing the entire slate. Plus, Philadelphia has the defensive potential to shine in a championship game, and as they say, defense wins championships… right? Right??
RotoGrinders Projection:
- Fantasy Points: 6.51 pts
- Floor: 1.22 pts
- Ceiling: 13.64 pts
Flex Options
On DraftKings, this slate is priced in a way that ownership could be highly spread out, making it difficult to predict exactly where the field will gravitate. With so many viable plays in different salary ranges, we could see less consolidation around a few core players, creating opportunities to build unique lineups without making extreme contrarian choices.
That being said, there are still a few key players I want to sprinkle in most of my lineups based on their upside, potential leverage, and how they fit into different game scripts. The right mix of high-projected players and lower-owned differentiators will be crucial to maximizing success in large-field tournaments.
Punt plays that I have my eye on include:
DeAndre Hopkins - 7.5% projected flex ownership
Jahan Dotson- 3.6% projected flex ownership
Kenneth Gainwell- 2.3% projected flex ownership
Conclusion
At the end of the day, DFS is supposed to be fun. Sure, we’re all here trying to find the best angles, uncover hidden leverage spots, and chase that big tournament win—but remember, no lineup is a guarantee, and variance is a cruel beast.
If you take nothing else from this breakdown, just know that playing DFS is all about taking calculated risks. Sometimes those risks pay off big, and sometimes they leave you staring at a lineup that didn’t even come close (we’ve all been there). The goal is to have fun, embrace the chaos, and enjoy the process—because let’s be real, sweating out a showdown slate in the fourth quarter is one of the best rushes in sports.
That said, DO NOT bet money you can’t afford to lose. DFS should be entertainment, not a second mortgage. Play responsibly, take some bold shots, and let’s try to take down this slate together.
Now, let’s lock in our lineups, grab some snacks, and enjoy the madness that is showdown DFS. See you at the top of the leaderboard! 🚀💰
